Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to former US President Jimmy Carter (1977-81), discusses in a recent article what he calls “the three fundamental facts of the present era.” He points to the following: Global peace is threatened not by utopian fanaticism, as was the case in the last century, but by the turbulent complexity inherent in global political awakening.Social progress is more enduringly attained by democratic participation rather than authoritarian mobilization. Global stability can be promoted only by larger-scale cooperation, not through imperial domination. (The National Interest, January-February 2012)
I find Professor Brzezinski’s observations highly helpful in understanding the world in the wake of the Arab Awakening, which can be said to have changed the context of international politics as radically as the end of the Cold War. It is clear that the current instabilities are mostly the consequence of the Arab peoples’ rebellions in pursuit of freedom and democracy. They have learned through experience that social progress cannot be achieved under authoritarian regimes but by democratic participation. The instabilities that ensue from the Arab awakening can be dealt with not by any single imperial, hegemonic power but by large-scale, international cooperation. This was observed in Libya last year and is likely to be seen in Syria this year.
It has already become clear that the people’s revolution in Syria will involve a tougher struggle than the one fought in Libya. Conditions in Syria are neither like those in Tunisia and Egypt, nor Libya. The armed forces in Tunisia and Egypt did not side with the autocratic regimes, while in the latter they were divided from the outset. In Syria, however, the armed forces stand mostly on the side of the Baath dictatorship. The regime is supported not only by its mainstay, the Alawite-majority bureaucracy, but also by Sunni business groups and at least some of the non-Muslim minorities. Moreover, it has strong international allies, primarily in Russia and Iran. As long as its domestic allies and Russian friends are not convinced that their interests or rights will be secured in its aftermath, the autocratic regime may endure much longer than expected. The point on which most outsiders seem to agree is that foreign military intervention — similar to the one in Iraq or Libya — aimed at toppling the regime risks setting the entire region on fire.
Under such circumstances, to bring an end to the repressive Syrian regime — which has killed up to 7,000 people since the beginning of protests last March — both the Syrian people who demand freedom and its friends need to wage a patient and sustained struggle to dissolve the internal and external alliances the regime rests on. This strategy may worry consciences, but appears to be the only rational course to pursue.
What can Turkey — the people of which surely feel deep sympathy for Syrians and has the greatest interest in the establishment of democratic stability in the neighboring country — do to help? It can and must continue to push for and lead initiatives towards the broadest possible international cooperation aimed at stopping the killing and democratizing the regime in Syria. Ankara should make every possible effort to convince Moscow to contribute. It can work to extend humanitarian aid to the afflicted people in Syria and help the country to democratize in all other possible ways. It is, however, imperative that it stays away from involvement in any unilateral or multilateral military intervention, which is most likely to lead not only to civil war in Syria but to region-wide, multilateral armed conflict.
Turkey: Assad turning Syria into ‘bloodbath’ | Seattle Post Intelligencer
Thursday, December 22, 2011
ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Turkey’s Foreign Ministry has strongly condemned the continued attacks against civilians in Syria despite an agreement with the Arab League to halt the bloodshed.
The ministry said in a statement e-mailed early Thursday that President Bashar Assad’s regime was turning the country into a “bloodbath.”
It says the violence is in stark contrast to the spirit of the agreement and is raising doubts about Syria’s “true intentions.”
Two days of violence in Syria near the Turkish border have left more than 200 people dead.
The Ministry says no administration “can come out a winner from a struggle against its own people” and renews a call on Damascus to immediately end the violence and take steps “in line with the demands of the people.”
© 2011 Hearst Communications Inc.
